10 Surprising Facts About the Limited 'Coal Comeback' After the Iran Crisis

The Iran conflict and subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sparked widespread fears of a global return to coal, as disrupted gas supplies forced nations to scramble for alternatives. Headlines screamed about coal's revival, but a deeper look reveals a very different story. New analysis from the energy thinktank Ember, shared exclusively with Carbon Brief, shows that any increase in coal power will be tiny—just 1.8% at most in 2026. In fact, the much-hyped 'coal comeback' is turning out to be a mirage, with structural declines and clean energy investments quietly reshaping the power landscape. Here are 10 things you need to know.

1. The 'Return to Coal' Is a Worst-Case Scenario – And Likely Overblown

Ember's analysis presents a 'worst-case' picture, assuming all announced coal increases are fully implemented. The projected global rise in coal-fired electricity output for 2026 is a mere 1.8%. This small bump could easily be offset by falling coal use elsewhere. Many countries are actually reducing coal generation—China's coal power growth is slowing, and the EU has seen a historic low in 2025. The reality may be even lower, meaning the 'coal comeback' is more hype than substance.

2. No Actual 'Return to Coal' Has Been Recorded in 2026 So Far

Separate data tracks real-time electricity generation. As of mid-2026, there has been no measurable increase in coal power globally compared to the same period in 2025. While some countries have announced plans, implementation lags and many are still relying on existing gas inventories or ramping up renewables. The data shows that the narrative of a sudden coal resurgence does not match on-the-ground statistics.

3. Only a Handful of Nations Are Seriously Considering Coal Increases

At least eight countries in Asia and Europe have announced plans to boost coal generation or delay phase-outs: Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, Germany, and Italy. However, these are among the largest coal users already, and their planned increases are relatively modest. Most other nations, especially in Africa and Latin America, are not turning to coal. The panic is concentrated in a few regions heavily dependent on LNG from the Strait of Hormuz.

4. The Strait of Hormuz Blockade Disrupted Only a Fraction of Global Gas

While the Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint—carrying 20% of the world's LNG—this represents a small share of total global gas supply. The majority of gas moves via pipelines. The blockade caused price spikes and supply shortages for LNG-dependent countries (especially in Asia), but it did not create a worldwide gas crisis. This limits the scale of any coal substitution. The panic is concentrated where LNG is most critical.

5. The 2022 Ukraine War Precedent Shows Coal 'Return' Was Temporary

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, European coal use spiked briefly as gas from Russia was cut off. Pundits declared coal's revival. Yet by 2025, EU coal use had fallen to a historic low, resuming its 'terminal decline'. The same pattern is expected now: a short-term blip, not a long-term trend. The structural forces favoring renewables and gas (where available) are stronger than ever.

6. Clean Energy Projects Are Becoming More Attractive Amid the Crisis

Ironically, the fossil-fuel-driven energy crisis has made clean energy investments more appealing. Wind, solar, and battery storage offer price stability and energy security that coal cannot match. Analysts note that governments and utilities are accelerating renewable targets as a hedge against future supply disruptions. The crisis is accelerating, not reversing, the energy transition in most markets.

7. Asia's Coal Reliance Is Real, but New Plants Are Being Cancelled

Countries like Japan and South Korea have the highest coal dependency in the OECD. Yet even there, new coal plant proposals have been cancelled or postponed due to economic and environmental pressures. The current crisis may delay some retirements, but it does not mean a new wave of coal construction. The global pipeline of new coal capacity is shrinking.

8. Demand Growth Could Slow, Keeping Coal Output Flat or Declining

Global electricity demand growth is expected to moderate in 2026 due to economic slowdowns and efficiency gains. If demand rises less than expected, the small increase in coal generation from a few countries could be absorbed without any net rise. In fact, Ember's analysis suggests coal generation could fall if demand growth stalls and renewables continue to expand.

9. The 'Coal Comeback' Narrative Ignores the Dominance of Renewables

Wind and solar added more than 500 GW of new capacity in 2025, a record. Even with disrupted gas supplies, renewables are filling the gap far faster than coal can. In many countries, building a new solar farm is cheaper than running an existing coal plant. The 'return to coal' story overlooks these economic realities. Coal's decline is structural, driven by cost and climate policy.

10. The Big Picture: Structural Decline Masks a Temporary Blip

Experts summarize: 'The big story isn't about a coal comeback.' Any increase in coal use is merely masking a longer-term structural decline. The Iran crisis is a short-term shock, not a paradigm shift. Investments in coal are risky assets that could become stranded as the world moves toward net-zero. The most resilient strategy is to double down on clean energy, which many nations are now doing.

Conclusion: The world is not witnessing a significant return to coal in the wake of the Iran crisis. The 1.8% worst-case rise is tiny compared to the massive growth of renewables. The crisis has actually strengthened the case for energy independence through clean power. Coal's terminal decline continues, and the real story is how quickly the energy transition is accelerating, even in a crisis.